chng smoothed_adj_outpatient_covid contains spikes/outliers

[brookslogan]

Actual Behavior:

chng smoothed_adj_outpatient_covid signal has several spikes/outliers:

Zooming in on one of these, it appears to impact only a single day:

Expected behavior

smoothed_adj_outpatient_covid should be smooth.

Context

I was browsing around signals in EpiVis to try to sanity-check COVID-19 hospitalization forecasts.

[melange396]

wild unsubstantiated hunch -- this may be related to:

• Weekday adjustment to use Clarabel instead of ECOS #1966

[dshemetov]

It might be due to bad Weekday model fitting, but Clarabel replaced ECOS this May, so I don't think it's responsible for these.

[melange396]

Clarabel is the fix for ECOS instability, and these spikes happened well before May, so it makes sense to me that ECOS is the reason for them. The PR i linked was intended to force doctor_vists off of ECOS in order to prevent similar "spikes" that caused validation failures (dr_visits was still running a pre-1.5 version of cvxpy in late May when #1966 was created). I could be missing something though. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

• Log environment details for forensic purposes #1994 mightve been useful here

[dshemetov]

Ah I misunderstood, thought that issue was about accidentally using Clarabel.